OWN THE SUMMIT

Summit County real estate sales saw a sharp decline in January from both versus the prior month and versus January of 2022.  January transactions were down 47.1 percent from December while the dollar volume of sales for the period declined 57.9 percent.  Year over year the declines were of similar magnitude. The number of transactions fell by 48.4 percent and dollar volume was of 57. percent.

No doubt higher interest rates are having their impact on sales.  With higher rates, required payments rise taking new home ownership out of the reach of many. No doubt recent short term rental restrictions have had an impact as well.  Finally, as the COVID restrictions have eased potential buyers are less inclined to seek that ideal spot to work remotely.

Although somewhat early in the year to draw any definitive conclusions, average selling prices (ASPs) in January did soften.  The ASP for a single family home during the month was $2.86 million, down about 9.4 percent from the full year 2022 figure.  Multi family ASPs also eased lower dropping 7.1 percent to $835,000.

The sales mix in the month did not show any particular preference for high end or low end properties.  Properties about $2.5 million were slightly ahead of their 2022 share.  However, the $400k-$600k  and $800k-$900k ranges were also above the 2022 levels.  Meanwhile the $1 million to $2 million price points came in a little light.                                         

Inventories up sharply year over year

February is usually the month we start to see the seasonal increase in inventory which accelerates into the late spring.  The end of February did see a small gain overall, 1.3 percent, which was driven by a 4.3 percent gain in multi family properties while single family listing were down 3.1 percent.  Year over year, listing were up dramatically.  Single family homes for sale rose 82.4 percent and multi family were up 163.6 percent.  Even with those big gains,  the for sale inventory is still about half of historical levels at this time of year.

While the snow guns are firing up the Summit County housing market is cooling down.  September real estate sales dropped in both dollars and number of transaxtions.  Dollar volume in the month was off 3.4 percent from August while transaction volume fell 7.7 percent.  Sequential declines at this time of the year are not unusual but the year over year drops where more disconcerting.  Versus a September year ago, dollar sales are off 33.8 percent and the number of transactions has fallen 35 percent.  Year to date, total dollar volume is now off 19 percent and transaction volume down 35%

Despite the dramatic decline in sales activity, average selling prices (ASPs) have held steady on a sequential month basis and are still up dramatically year over year.  The year to date ASP for single family homes at the end of September was $2,099,375 flat with August  but up 26.1 percent from this time last year.  For multi-family units the year to date ASP was $915,341 up slightly from August and an in crease of 19.1 percent from a year ago.

Despite the drop in sales activity active listings at the end of October also declined.  Single family homes for sales were off 18.8 percent from the end of September.  Multi-family listings were down 16.1 percent in the same period. 

Despite those declines, inventories are still sharply above the year ago levels.  Single family listings are up 74 percent while multi family propereties for sale have risen 286 percent.  Overall active listings are up 159 percent.

Those increases are clearly a reflection of the weaker overall market as the number of new listings is down significantly.  In October 2020 there where 305 new listings.  That number fell to 228 in October 2021 and only 187 in October of 2022.

At the same time, the average days on market has increased sharply in recent months.  In June the average days on market was 5.  By October that number had increased to 42 days.

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After a dip in July, August Summit County real estate sales rebounded somewhat posting gains in both dollars and the number of transactions.  The  number of closed sales in August rose 6.5 percent from the prior month to 262  while dollar volume was up 19.8 percent to $304.2 million. 

The year over year comparisons, as expected, were not quite as favorable.  The increase in dollar volume from August of 2020 was only 3.7 percent while the number of transactions actually fell 28.8 percent.

Year to date, dollar sales are up 78 percent and transactions up 42 percent.  Those are impressive increases but well short of the triple digit gains we were seeing earlier in the year.  We expect gains to continue to moderate as we compare against the strong COVID related recovery last fall.

Average selling prices (ASPs)continue to be on the rise.  Year to date, the ASP for single family properties hit $1,640,000.  That is up 30.3 percent from this time a year ago.  The ASP for multi family units is up 6.3 percent to $717,132.  As a comparison the ASP for a single family home in the Denver market is $841,000 and for multi-family $448,000.

In August, the very high end of the market was the standout.  With 14 sales over $3 million that segment represented 6.4 percent of all closed transactions.  For all of 2020, that segment accounted for only 2 percent of sales.  The bottom half of the market continues to run well below the trend.

Inventories Remain Tight

Nationally, housing inventory has been in an upward trend since April. While Summit County did see a seasonal pick up in the Spring (on a sequential basis) inventories peaked in August have had significant declines the last two months.  At the end of September, there were 168 residential properties listed for sale, down 15.6 percent from August.  The number represented a 27.3 percent drop from a year ago.  Single family homes were fairly steady month to month but active listings for multi family properties were down  30.4 percent. 

As expected, July gains in Summit County real estate sales moderated substantially from the torrid pace of the first half of the year.  COVID restrictions severely impacted the first six months of 2020 making comparisons quite easy, strong gains in the second half of last year made July and forth coming months much harder comparisons. 

What was surprising is that July 2021 sales dipped from those in June.  Normally we don’t see the seasonal peak for a couple more months.

Year over year the number of sales was up only 6 percent in July to 246 transactions. The prior six months had seen gains of 92 percent.  Dollar volume fared better rising 32 percent year over year.  The prior six months had been up 176%.

Versus June of this year, the number of transaction in July was down 13.7%.  Dollar volume was down by 18 percent.

Despite the monthly decline in sales activity, prices remain strong.  The year to date average selling price (ASP) for a single family home rose $3,000  from June reaching $1,600,866.  That figure is 30 percent ahead of this time last year.  Multi-family prices also gained reaching $707,888.  That figure is 16.7 percent ahead of the year ago number.  Mix continues to favor the higher end of the market.  This accounts for both the rise in average selling prices and the stronger performance of dollars vs transactions.

Inventories Remain Low

While nationwide inventory levels have been rising, Summit County remains a tight market.  The overall listing count in August was down 13 percent from the level in July.  Single family listings were down 16.3 percent to 87 homes for sale.  Multi family listings declined 13.1 percent to 199.

On a year over year basis, single family homes for sale are off 24.3 percent and multi family listings are down 43.4 percent.  In total, listings have declined 36.4 percent year over year.  We typically see inventories peak in July or August so major improvement is

April Summit County real estate sales softened modestly from the levels of March.  However, they showed spectacular gains versus the COVID depressed results of last year.  From March to April, the number of transactions fell  11.2 percent to 231 closed sales.  Those  sales, however, were up 151 percent from April of 2020.  Dollar volume declined a more modest 3.9 percent and were up 242 percent from a year ago.

Year to date, number of sales is up 65 percent and the dollar volume up 91 percent from this time last year. We would expect similar year over year gains over the next month or two but as the year progresses the comparisons will get more difficult.

Selling Prices On The Rise

Year to date average selling prices ticked up on a sequential month basis for both single family and multi-family properties.  As of the end of April, the average single family sale was $1,586,128 up 30.9 percent from this time last year and 14.4 from the full year 2020 figure.  The average multi-family price rose to $676,626 a 6.1 percent and 6.9 percent increase versus a year ago and full year 2020 respectively

On a price point basis the lower end once again substantially underperformed.  The standout in the month, however was the $1.0-1.5 million segment. Recently, that spectrum of the market had also been under performing versus the historical norm.  However, in April, sales in this segment  were quite strong representing 19 percent of all sales versus under 15 percent in the prior three months combined.

Inventories Make Modest Sequential Gains

Inventories once again made a modest sequential gain rising 16.9 percent from the end of April to the end of May.  Single family listings were up 19.4 percent to 80 and multi-family was up 14.7 percent to 86.  Both categories, however, were well below last year which itself was well below historical averages.  YOY single family listings are down 60.6 percent while multi-family are off 74.9 percent.  The low inventories are not because people aren’t selling.  Its just homes sell so fast they don’t stay in inventory long.

As expected Summit County real estate sales saw very strong gains in March versus the Covid constrained sales of March 2020.  The transaction count was up 95% year over year to 280 sales.  Transaction dollars were up an even more impressive 127% to $226.3 million.  What was a little surprising was the magnitude of the gain over the February 2021 period.  Transaction volume in March was up 72 percent from the prior month. Dollar volume was up 70 percent.  These are quite impressive numbers given that inventories were actually down during the period.

Year to date, transaction volume is up 45 percent to 571 sales. Dollar volume is up 59 percent to $489.1 million.  We can only expect those gains to expand over the next several months as we continue to compare against COVID inhibited periods a year ago.

Average selling prices on the rise

The year to date average selling price (ASP) for single family properties rose modestly from February reaching $1,533,466.  That figure is 22 percent ahead of a year ago and 20 percent above the full year 2020 number.  The multi family ASP fell approximately $20,000 to $645,569 but still is running 11.4 percent ahead of the comparable 2020 period and 6.5 percent above the full 2020 year.

Sales mix continue to favor the higher end of the market.  Sales under $700,000 accounted for 45.4 percent of total transactions slightly above the 44.2 percent year to date figure but well below the 52.3 percent figure of 2020 which itself was at historical lows.

Inventories tick upward

For the first time since June of 2020 inventories at the end of May saw a sequential gain rising from 132 in April to 142.  Nevertheless the year over year comparisons remain decidedly negative.  Single family listings in the county (67) are down 57.6 percent from April last year.  Multi family properties for sale (75) are off 81.7%.  With 142 listings, the the Summit County MLS now boasts 5.3 active brokers for every active listing.

Summit County real estate sales took another substantial sequential decline in January following its normal seasonal pattern.  Transaction volume in January fell  43.4 percent to 160 sales.  Dollar volume was off a similar 45.0 percent.  Despite those sharp sequential declines year over year comparisons were still quite strong due to last year’s slow start.  Transaction volume was up 19.4 percent and dollar volume 31.5 percent on a year over year basis. 

The sales mix in January was not as heavily weighted as we have seen in recent months towards the high end.  While sales below $400,000 continued at well below historical levels, it was the mid market of  $700,000—$1 million that showed the strongest relative performance.  This segment accounted for 32.3 percent of all sales for the month.

Single Family ASPs up big

Average selling prices (ASPs) in the month showed substantial swings from the year to date numbers for all of 2020.  The ASP for a single family home in the month was up 18.8 percent from a year ago at $1,281,004.  However, that figure was down 7.6 percent from the full year 2020 number.  The multi-family ASP in January was $686,459, a 9.1 percent increase versus January 2020 and a 13.2 percent gain versus the multi family ASP for all of last year.  Given this is only one month of data, we should not put too much stock into this numbers at this time.

Inventories Remain Historically Low

Inventories in the month of February continued their seasonal downward trend and remain well below historical levels.  The total of 138 listings declined 4.8 percent from January of this year and were off 70 percent from a year ago.  Single family homes for sale were off 58.2 percent from a year ago and multi-family properties were down 75.2 percent.  Given the rate of sales in January, current listings reflect only 26 days of inventory. While listings are coming on to the market at nearly the rate of sales, sales are happening quicker than ever.  In February, the average days on market (DOM) was 10 days, but down from 32 days a year ago.

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The lack of inventory finally took its toll on Summit County Real Estate sales in December.  Overall transaction volume fell 28.2 percent to 283 sales while dollar volume was off 33.3 percent at $236.6 million.  Both represented the lowest figures since July. 

Despite the sharp sequential decline, the year over year comparisons were still up smartly.  Transaction volume in the month rose 23 percent while dollar volume was up 30 percent. 

The full year had similarly impressive gains despite the slow start to the year.  For the 12 months of 2020, transaction volume was up 15% with a total of  2,800 sales, an all time record for the County.  Dollar volume was up an even more impressive 22 percent to $2.3 billion.  That too was an all time record.

Year to date average selling prices for both single family and multi family units edged up from November .  For much of the year single family prices had been underperforming multi family.  But, with a strong finish to the year, the single family ASP for 2020 rose 9.8 percent to $1,386,525 while the multi family ASP increased 8.3 percent to $606,487.

From a price point perspective the year closed much as it had tracked all year long.  Low end sales as a percent of the total were well below their historical norms while higher end properties outperformed.  For the full year, properties over $1.0 million accounted for 30 percent of all sales. In 2019 that figure was 24 percent and in 2015 it was only 4 percent.

Overall inventories again took a hit in January but there was some sequential improvement in the single family market.  For the year, single family listings in the County were off 37.7 percent although they were up 10 percent from the prior month.  Multi family homes for sale fell 80 percent versus a year ago and were off 30 percent from the prior month with only  59 listings.  There were a total of 145 listing, down 68.8 YOY and down 80% from their peak of 700 in May.

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While Summit County real estate activity ended 2019 with a bang, it began 2020 with a whimper.  December 2019 saw 230 real estate transactions in the county, a number that fell 42 percent in January to a mere 134 sales.  That figure trailed January of 2019 by 3 percent and was the lowest January results since 2016.

Dollar volume experienced a similar fate.  In December of last year, dollar sales totaled $181.6 million.  For January of this year, the figure only reached $98.8 million, a decline of 46.5 percent. Versus the January 2019 number, dollar sales were down 13.1 percent.

It is hard to find a single source for the poor results.  However, it could be that the strength in December stole some sales from January.

Our source (Land Title) tallies average selling prices (ASPs) on a year to date basis and thus we only have one month of data.  The single family number is a little eyebrow raising coming in at $1,069,346 down from $1,262,929 for all of 2019.  But again the sample size is too small to read too much into that number.  The ASP for multi-family homes was somewhat more reassuring. At $629,329 this figure was up 18.7 percent from last January and 12.4 from all of last year.  Again, we would expect this swing to moderate as the year progresses.

Sales mix for the month followed a familiar pattern.  Low end sales continue to run well below historical norms with properties under $500,000 accounting for only 27 percent of sales.  The other notable observation regarding the mix is that there were no sales over $2.5 million. 

Inventories appear to have bottomed and were up 5 percent from the prior month.  Year over year inventories are up 21 percent with all that gain coming in the multi-family category.  Multi-family listings are up 36 percent while single family properties for sale are down 3 percent.

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